Danielle Lazier

Archive for the 'Economic News & Market Updates' Category

San Francisco Bay Area Home Prices Up 18% – Case Shiller Home Price Index Positive on San Francisco Real Estate

San Francisco Bay Area Home Prices Up 18% – Case Shiller Home Price Index Positive on San Francisco Real Estate

According to the Huffington Post and the July 27, 2010 Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Case Shiller July 2010

“If you bought a home in San Francisco in the past year, it might feel like the housing slump is over. Bay area home prices have shot up 18 percent in the past year. But someone next door who bought in 2006 may have suffered a 35 percent loss in value. And if you’re a Las Vegas homeowner, there’s been no good news in four years. The latest report on home prices confirms that real estate is all about timing and location.”

Ah, the elusive timing and location.

Read the rest of this entry »

Tags: case shiller, case-shiller home price index, huffington post, market update

Luxury Home Sales Bounce Back (especially in the San Francisco Luxury Home Market) – WSJ.com

Luxury Home Sales Bounce Back – WSJ.com…especially in the San Francisco luxury home real estate market.

“After a near-disastrous 2009, the luxury market appears to be making a comeback, driven by growing buyer confidence, improved financing conditions and more-realistic seller pricing.

Despite the housing downturn, attractively priced homes in some of the nation’s most coveted neighborhoods are selling, sometimes fast and sometimes with multiple offers.

Nationwide, sales of homes selling for $2 million to $5 million in the first quarter totaled 2,461, up 32% from a year before, says CoreLogic.”

Recently, a gorgeous 4 Bedroom home in San Francisco’s family-friendly Noe Valley neighborhood (San Francisco, CA 94114), listed for about $1,700,000. Within a week, the Seller had received 4 offers, 2 of which were “All-Cash” and with no contingencies!

In San Francisco, if a home is priced right for today’s market and in a desirable neighborhood, it will sell. This is just not the depressed market that you read about… That’s good news for Sellers, especially those who have owned their homes for a while and/or have other savings and are looking to trade-up.

Buyers, don’t despair. Prices remain significantly down from the peak. Yes, you may have competition and need to write an over-asking offer BUT you are competing at a price point 10-20% off of peak prices. And with today’s LOW mortgage interest rates, real estate in San Francisco remains a killer deal.

Tags: luxury, Luxury Real Estate Market, san francisco luxury homes

Real Estate Market Outlook – The Devil’s in the Details but Good News for the San Francisco Real Estate Market

Last week, I heard Robert Kleinhenz, Deputy Chief Economist from the California Association of Realtors (CAR) give an Economic Forecast Update. He talked about how the media continues to cover “the California real estate market” when there is really no such thing. What is happening in the major cities and coastal regions is not the same as what is happening inland. As the 5th largest world economy, California is large and diverse. We have many economies and many real estate markets.

If you want to understand what is going on in your neighborhood, keep it local – very local. Become an extreme real estate locavore, if you will. And remember that the devil is in the details.

Read the rest of this entry »

Tags: case shiller, home prices, locavore, nytimes, sfgate

San Francisco Real Estate Market on the Rebound – Competition for Desirable Properties

What goes up must come down, right? Well, the same is true in reverse.

International & cosmopolitan cities like San Francisco rarely experience major downturns (most local SF real estate agents will cite 1989-1991 as the last one) and are usually the last to the party and the first to leave. In other words, a real estate market downturn in San Francisco is rare and doesn’t last long relative to most of the country.

Personally, my belief is that 2009 was the bottom. Time will tell. My crystal ball may be a little better than the average person’s simply because I work in the housing trenches day in, day out and pay attention to micro-trends but it’s not omniscient.

Our local San Francisco Board of Realtors just published their latest market data report. SFAR tries to keep ahead of State and National reports because all real estate is local and our market is pretty unique.

Here’s a highlight of the latest report.

“Sales activity in San Francisco’s housing market rebounded during the second half of 2009 and into early 2010, resulting in a significantly tighter housing market from a year ago, according to the most recent Market Focus report released jointly by the Rosen Consulting Group and the San Francisco Association of REALTORS®. The report states that completed home sales in March 2010 increased 58 percent from the same month a year ago, absorbing much of the excess inventory in the market and intensifying competition among buyers for desirable properties.”

Check out the full report as a PDF File on San Francisco Real Estate and corresponding press release from the San Francisco Real Estate Board:

Market_Focus_Report_April_2010

Market_Focus_Press_Release_April_2010

Check out last Quarter’s Report on SF Real Estate here.

Tags: market report, rosen consulting group, sfar

Carpe Diem – How to get up to $18,000 in State and Federal Tax Credits for Buying a Home in San Francisco

Carpe Diem – How to get up to $18,000 in State and Federal Tax Credits for Buying a Home in San Francisco

For a very limited time, certain San Francisco first time home buyers will benefit from up to $18,000 in tax credits. Not a first time buyer? You may still be eligible for up to $16,500 in combined tax credits.

The deal is that you need to be in escrow by the end of April 2010 and close escrow by the end of June 2010. Three weeks doesn’t sound like a lot of time, does it? Yes and no. For those of you who are serious about buying a home, three weeks is enough time to catch up on the existing homes for sale and zero in on the right home for you. (It helps to work with energetic and responsive San Francisco real estate agents who will help you narrow down your search to the best homes meeting your criteria and then help you see them quickly. Yes, like us. Duh.)

Of course, the timing needs to be right for you and your situation. A tax credit alone does not mean you should buy a home! If it makes more sense to wait, then wait. But if you’ve been procrastinating and have been afraid to pull the trigger and make an offer on a house in San Francisco, maybe this extra dough in your pocket is just the incentive you need.

Zephyr Real Estate and our amazing new SF real estate website has been promoting this golden ticket opportunity but we’re not along. Check out the SFGate article on San Francisco Bay Area home buying, “Good timing could reap double tax credits.”

“Getting both: Both credits require you to buy the home as your primary residence. Both define a first-time buyer as someone who has not owned a home in the three years prior to purchase. In short, to get both credits you must be in contract on or before April 30 and close between May 1 and June 30 – and meet all other requirements.” Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/04/01/BU9G1CNTVN.DTL#ixzz0kiWPYQwZ

Just want the facts?

Courtesy of May Montana* and all of the great mortgage brokers at Guarantee Mortgage, here is a Matrix explaining the 2010 Home Buyer Tax Credits:

2010 Home Buyer Tax Credit Matrix – PDF File

More info:

• Dolores Plaza 1 Bedroom Mission Dolores Condo for Sale -
  • FHA-Approved for 3.5% Down Payment AND
  • Union Bank – Approved for 10% Down Payment with NO mortgage insurance and great interest rates.
• Federal and California Home Buyer Tax Credit and other reasons it may be the right time to buy a home in SF.

* May Montana is an excellent mortgage adviser. Check out our other recommended lenders and San Francisco mortgage brokers. Why do we recommend them? Because we know they are experienced, trustworthy, reliable, competitive with rates and fees… We have NO financial relationship with mortgage brokers. That would be illegal, unethical and totally not worth it. We just like working with these folks and know you will too!

Tags: CA Tax credit, Federal Home Buyer Tax Credit, home buyer tax credit

California Home Buyer Tax Credit, Assembly Bill 193, Signed Into Law by Governor Schwarzenegger

Today, the Governator or Governor Schwarzenegger signed Assembly Bill 183, the Home buyer Tax Credit legislation, into law.

More details to come but here are the basics:

• First Time Home Buyer Program
• Must buy a principal residence, i.e a home to live in and owner-occupy.
• Must live in the residence for the next 2 years at least.
• Tax Credit is the lesser of either 5% of purchase price or $10,000
  • Credit given in equal installments over 3 years.
• Must close escrow between May 1st 2010 and December 31st, 2010 OR enter into contract before December 31st, 2010 and close escrow by August 1, 2011.
  • In other words, you need to be in escrow in 2010 to qualify.
• This time around, the home buyer tax credit is for either new construction or the resale of existing homes.
• Warning: The state’s previous home buyer tax credit program was so successful that it ran out of tax credits by the end of June 2009, eight months before it was set to expire.

From the California Association of Realtors, “AB 183, formerly SB 4 of the sixth extraordinary session (Ashburn), is part of a package of four bills, passed at the request of the Governor, designed to help stimulate the economy and create jobs.  The bill allocates $100 million for qualified first time home buyers of existing homes and $100 million for purchasers of new, or previously unoccupied, homes. The eligible taxpayer who closes escrow on a qualified principal residence between May 1, 2010 and December, 31, 2010, or who closes escrow on a qualified principal residence on and after December 31, 2010 and before August 1, 2011, pursuant to an enforceable contract executed on or before December 31, 2010, will be able to take the allowed tax credit. This credit is equal to the lesser of 5% of the purchase price or $10,000, taken in equal installments over three consecutive years. Under AB 183 purchasers will be required to live in the home as their principal residence for at least two years or forfeit the credit (i.e. repay it to the state).”

Tags: AB183, CA Tax credit, home buyer tax credit

The Economist says the worst of America’s real estate downturn is over and you’ve been thinking of selling your San Francisco home, what to do now?

January 2nd’s The Economist notes,

“House prices are still far above their fair value in many countries – though no longer in America.”

Of course, the article does warn that “a further downward leg is possible since past housing busts have pushed priced below their fair value…” but those of us in the San Francisco real estate market have seen time and again that SF is the last to go down and the first to go up (or, at least, amongst the last and first.)

So what if you own a home in, say, Bernal Heights or Mission Dolores and you’ve been thinking of selling your home for a little while now?

You’ve been waiting for some signs of market stabilization but are growing anxious because you really could use some more space. Or, perhaps, you want to move out of San Francisco to new pastures. Well, most agree that the worst is probably over  yet no one I’ve heard of expects home prices to appreciate anytime soon. If you’re waiting for your value to go back to where it was in 2005, you may be waiting a long time.

The truth is that no one rings a bell when the downturn is over. We must look for subtle clues and take a leap of faith. Complex real estate markets like ours today offer superb opportunities for those wanting to sell their current home and buy another one. It’s “against the herd” thinking but it’s tried and true.

For example, say home prices are down 20% off the peak in Bernal Heights or another SF neighborhood.

If you’re home was worth $900,000 at the peak of the market, it’s now worth $720,000. This is a loss of $180,000 BUT the home you want to buy in Noe Valley was worth $1,400,000 at the peak. This same house is now worth $1,120,000 which is a decline of $280,000.

Essentially, if you sell your home and upgrade in a down market, you’ll SAVE money. In this example, it is $100,000 in savings. Plus, you’ll be leveraging yourself into a nicer home that has more potential to appreciate in the future. Add in today’s interest rates and the improved quality of life you’ll have for your family and this starts to look pretty good, right? (It goes without saying that this scenario will not work for everyone. You’ll need to have stable employment and equity to qualify for the home purchase.)

If you want to move out of San Francisco, you’ll probably be in even better shape. The San Francisco market has declined much less than most of the country. Last year, I helped clients sell their Bernal Heights listing and relocate to Merced where the market has declined much more than here in the Bay Area. When you look at both sides of the transaction, they did very well.

Alright, enough already. I do want to sell my San Francisco house in Bernal Heights or Mission Dolores or maybe even Inner Sunset this year and buy a new one in another neighborhood. If I want to sell a home and buy another one, what should I do now to prepare?

Glad you asked! You should read this post about the time line of buying and selling a home.

Follow SF Real Estate? Keep Your Eyes On the Valley. More VC Dollars Flow to Bay Area.

For a glint of positive news, look south. According to the Wall St. Journal, “Local (San Francisco Bay Area) Start-Ups Snagged a Bigger Slice of the Venture-Capital Pie in 2009.”

“But even as the overall amount of venture-capital money they pumped into companies declined from 2008, Bay Area start-ups got a bigger slice of the dollars that were deployed. According to research firm VentureSource, start-ups in the Silicon Valley region saw their percentage share grow over the first three quarters in 2009.”

“…venture capitalists say they paid even more attention to local start-ups last year because the recession weeded out weaker ideas elsewhere, while Silicon Valley’s longtime ecosystem of entrepreneurs and start-ups meant that new companies continued to launch.”

Who knows when we’ll see the next Google but rest-assured that those big, shiny, black buses are good for real estate. Where the luxury Google bus travels (or Apple or Genentech or…), so goes the increasing value of your Noe Valley Victorian listing, Mission loft, Bernal Heights home, or Mission Dolores condo!

Tags: google, venture capital, wall st. journal

San Francisco Real Estate Market Is More Resilient. Here’s Why. And SF Market Update.

At the beginning of each new client consultation, I ask the prospective San Francisco home buyer or seller what they believe is going on in the local real estate market, whether they are thinking of a Bernal Heights single family home or a Mission Dolores condominium.

Over the past 6 months, I have noticed a real shift in mentality. This is far from scientific research and more anecdotal, but it does seem like the public mood has improved. More buyers tell me that they feel we have already seen the bottom and that prices in San Francisco are starting to head back up, if only slowly. Read the rest of this entry »

Tags: 2009 market analysis, rosen consulting group, sf market analysis, sfar

HVCC Current Appraisal Rules: The Law of Unintended Consequences for SF Home Sales

The Law of Unintended Consequence: When an action leads to results that were unanticipated or unintended; can be positive or negative

The current home appraisal rules (HVAC) have had a myriad of unintended consequences. The intent of the guidelines was laudable: to help make the home valuation process more objective. The idea being that shady appraisers, Realtors, mortgage brokers, buyers and sellers helped create the over-inflated housing mess. I have a couple of issues with this approach. 1. We’re not all shady. 2. As with many bureaucratic pursuits, the intended goals are “lost in translation” as the rules fail to take into account how things actually work in local markets & in practice.

The unintended consequence of the new appraisal rules has been kind of the opposite of what the rules were trying to avoid. Instead of plumping up home prices, they are pushing them down. Read the rest of this entry »

Tags: appraisal, hvcc, pricing your home